FINISHED4

Between about the 29^th October and Christmas 1996 the intersection of these roads was re-structured, when a pair of roundabouts were removed and replaced by a 'sophisticated' system of traffic lights and pelican crossings.

The installation of the lights has created a deal of controversy amongst those who pass through them, but the local authority has remained apparently steadfast in it's justification of them.

It seems that it takes longer to cross as a pedestrian to cross the junction (4 minutes and 47 seconds for 15 meters!). It seems to take longer by car, in spite of the fact that many people now drive on routes that avoid Town End. Despite this, on questioning local officers, councillors and the chairman of Pontefract Road Safety committee I have been told the arrangements are now safer. My instincts led me to believe this might not be the case.

I decided to look at traffic casualties at Town end, and at the rates in Pontefract as a whole, comparing figures from before the installation of the lights, to after. I expected to find that casualty rates in Pontefract might have dropped at Town End, but gone up by the same amount in the rest of the town, maintaining the same level overall.

What follows are the results of my findings.

I have headed each chapter as a specific question. I have outlined a brief answer, and then attempted to justify those answers, concluding with a more in-depth reply to the original question

Pontefract (1:50,000) and plan of Town End ©

Definitions ©

Are usually based on those stipulated by the DETR, unless otherwise stated. The first definition, 'accident', is one in which is difficult to accept the DETR's euphemistic interpretation. The DETR themselves are reviewing their use of the term, as it's use in the context they define is at odds with the normal understanding, and is open to a very different legal interpretation. I have placed inverted commas around the word accident in DETR usage, included the Oxford definition, and have used the abbreviation RC for Road Casualty.

'Accident': "Involves personal injury occurring on the public highway (including footways) in which at least one road vehicle or a vehicle in collision with a pedestrian is involved and which becomes known to the police within 30 days of it's occurrence. The vehicle need not be moving and accidents involving stationary vehicles and pedestrians or users are included. One 'accident' might give rise to several casualties. Damage only accidents are not included (In this publication)."

Accident: "Event that is without apparent cause or unexpected." (The Concise Oxford dictionary)

Built-up road: Road with, normally, 40mph or less speed limit.

Casualty: "A Person killed or injured in an 'accident'. Casualties are subdivided into killed, seriously injured and slightly injured."

DETR: Department of Transport, Environment and the Regions

Killed: "Human casualties who sustained injuries which caused death less than 30 days after the 'accident'."

KSI: Killed or seriously injured

Pontefract: An Area of 9 square kilometres, bounded by Ordnance survey gridlines 444 to 447 (west east) and 420 to 423 (south north).

RC: Road casualty.

Serious injury: "An injury for which a person is detained in hospital as an 'in patient', or any of the following: Fractures, Concussion, Internal injuries, crushings, severe cuts and lacerations, severe shock requiring medical treatment and injuries causing death 30 or more days after the 'accident'. An injured casualty is recorded as seriously or slightly injured by the police on the basis of information available within a short time of the 'accident'. This generally will not reflect the results of a medical examination but may be influenced according to weather the casualty is hospitalised or not. Hospitalisation procedures vary regionally."

Slight injury: "An injury of a minor character such as a sprain, bruise or cut which are not judged to be severe, or slight shock requiring roadside attention. This definition includes injuries not requiring medical treatment.

Town End: For the purposes of this paper: The junction of the A645 and A639, The junction of 'Ropergate' (A one-way street emerging north of the main junction) with the A639, all pelican crossings, and about 30 meters from these pelican crossings in any direction. Bounded by grid lines (44)530 & (44)550 (west-east and (42)150 & (42)170 (south - north )

Reliability ©

Statistics.

This project is based figures obtained from the West Yorkshire Accident Database and the DETR Road 'Accident' reports. They are the figures relied upon by all agencies. I have endeavoured to utilise the biggest samples available, so have, whenever possible used several years' statistics. Specifically I have complete figures for Pontefract from 1992 to 1999 inclusive and all national figures up to and including 1998.

This observation of people's health, as a result of Motor traffic in Pontefract will underestimate the scale of damage. The following statements though true, are not accounted for.

The DETR estimates. (From page 34 of 'Road accidents Great Britain: 1997 the casualty report')

'About 36% of all road casualties were not reported to the police'

'In addition a fifth of casualties reported to the police went unrecorded'

'Police are more likely to underestimate severity of injury'

'Reporting rates are higher for less vulnerable road user groups'

The Government estimates. (In it's white paper on the future of transport, July 1998, Page 23)

'Up to 24,000 vulnerable people are estimated to die prematurely each year, and similar numbers are admitted to hospital, because of exposure to air pollution, much of which is due to road traffic'.

The Department of Health states. (In the 'Quantification of the effects of Air Pollution on Health in the United Kingdom' 1998, pages 58 and 59)

'There was too little information for determining an effect of Carbon Monoxide on either hospital admissions of mortality'

'We may have understated the overall effects of Air Pollution on health in the UK'

The net result of these statements might lead one to suppose that the casualties sustained in road impacts are only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to suffering caused by motor vehicles. It does not take a great leap of imagination to stand amidst the cars at Town End and realise that they might be doing considerable pollution damage. If the government estimates are correct, (And they admittedly err on the side of caution) we could extrapolate that for every Road death by 'accident' (Of which there are about 3,500 per year), there maybe six premature deaths by pollution (of which there may be 24,000).

Just as there are proportionate numbers of serious and slight injuries to deaths from RC's, likewise we can suppose for every death brought about by pollution there is a corresponding amount of non-fatal suffering. The department of health summarises In the 'Quantification of the effects of Air Pollution on Health in the United Kingdom' 1998, pages 57 & 58,

'"There is no threshold of effect of particles or SO₂for either mortality or hospital admissions."

With 'accidents' the ratio of slight casualties to serious is approximately 10:1, and similarly serious to fatal 10:1. Considering the above statement it might be expected that increased pollution levels have a significant effect on people's health, with ratios of degree at least the same as those for casualties. At this moment in time no studies have been carried out at Town End and the levels of pollution, nevertheless, the waiting time for all users and the idling time of motor cars at the junction has increased.

 It is logical to assume an increased health risk for all users

The area surveyed is by no means comprehensive. Traffic will now divert through the outlying areas of Pontefract, and no figures have been established for Featherstone, East Hardwick, Darrington, the A1 or the M62. It is logical to suppose that the Town End restructuring increased traffic through and along these places. Within Pontefract itself, some parts of the periphery have not been accounted, and again, anecdotal evidence would suggest that these roads are now busier, therefore more dangerous.

In all aspects of this report the detrimental effects to safety which might be attributable to Town End Lights either accurate or under-estimated.

Has there been a reduction in traffic casualties in Pontefract and how does this compare to national trends? ©

There has not been a reduction in traffic casualties in Pontefract, and the rise has been greater than the national trend.

The Data available was from 1992 and 1999.

Four sets of data were compared.

The year of 1996 was discarded, as for three months of this year the road works at Town End may have effected numbers.

For local statistics the three years before 1996 were compared with the three years after 1996. These figures gave the greatest possible sample available while retaining a balance on either side of 1996.

For the same reasons, only two years of national statistics either side but not including 1996 were taken into account, as the figures for 1999 are not available yet. The National statistical group is so large it can be regarded as a more reliable indicator than the local one, nevertheless, as soon as the national figures for 1999 become available they will be used.

	Pre 1996	After 1996
National	625,695	648,105
Pontefract	358	376

Chart 1a

Chart 1b

Charts 1 a & b. Traffic casualties prior to and after 1996.

We can observe a trend of a slight rise of traffic casualties (3.58%) nationally

A similar, though slightly greater trend (5.03%) is reflected in the local statistics

	Pre 1996	After 1996
National	99,323	90,721
Pontefract	34	44

Chart 1c

Chart 1d

Charts 1 c & d. KSI traffic casualties in Pontefract and nationally.

In Charts (1 c & d) we can observe a decrease in KSI road casualties (8.66%) nationally

Locally we observe an increase of 29.41%.

We can observe that there has been no decrease in casualties in Pontefract, that the increase in slight casualties exceeds the national average, and that the increase in serious casualties bucks the national trend of reduction by a considerable amount.

2. Has there been a reduction in casualties at Town End? ©

No.

Year

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Casualties

8

8

5

4

N/A.

8

11

11

Chart 2 a

Chart 2 b

Charts 2 a & b. Annual traffic casualties at Town End

Prior to 1996 we can see an annual average of 25/4 = 6.25 casualties per year at Town End. In chapter 3 the financial implications of casualties are outlined. Using government estimates, we can calculate that at Town End casualties before 1996 ran at a cost of

24 (Slight casualties) times £10,000 plus 1(serious casualties) times £100,000 all divided by 4 = £85,000 per year

After 1996 we can see an average of 30/3 = 10 per year

At a cost of 28 times £10,000 plus 2 times £100,000 all divided by three = £160,000 per year

There has not been a reduction of casualties at Town End

3. What are the costs of casualties? ©

A death on the roads has been priced at slightly over £1,000,000 (Source DETR 'Road accidents Great Britain: 1997 the casualty report': 28-33)

A non-fatal serious injury is slightly over £100,000.

If national trends were reflected locally we might have expected the following approximate costs of KSI traffic casualties in Pontefract for the period 1997-1999

£100,000 per each of the 34 non-fatal serious injury x 91%

£100,000 x 34 x 91/100 = £3,094,000

The approximate costs of KSI traffic casualties in Pontefract for the period 1997-1999 were

£100,000 per each of the 42 non-fatal serious injuries plus £1,000,000 for each of the two deaths.

(£100,000 x 42)+(£1,000,000 x 2) = £6,200,000.

We might expect a cost of £3,094,000

We, in fact, have a cost of £6,200,000

Traffic casualties in the last three years have exceeded expectations by over three million pounds. Even if the two fatalities are ignored, there is still over £1 million excess on what might be expected. Bearing in mind that there has not been a multiple death in any one incident, an expensive trend seems to be indicated.

4. Was there evidence to suggest Town End should have been prioritised for this work? ©

While there is evidence to suggest the junction was dangerous, there is a case for saying that other locations were as, or more, deserving of attention, especially if area and cost were taken into account.

The figures for all casualties in Pontefract between 1992 and 1994 were placed on a spreadsheet; the co-ordinates sorted and summarised

Place	Bounded by gridline				Area	Nature		Cost	Cost
	West	East	South	North	m²	Slight	Serious	£s	£/m²
Town End	530	550	150	170	40,000	20	1	300,000	7.50
Halfpenny Lane/Front Street	522	530	190	193	2,400	14	3	440,000	183.33
Mayors Walk/Mill Hill	543	550	82	83	700	4		40,000	57.14
Southgate/Friarwood	583	589	195	199	2,400	8	1	180,000	75.00
Southgate/Broad Lane	574	577	186	189	900	6	1	160,000	177.78
Southgate/Valley Road	553	560	176	185	6,300	13		130,000	20.63
Holmes printers	550	570	180	200	40,000	17	2	370,000	9.25
Catholic Club	510	530	190	200	20,000	16	5	660,000	33.00

Chart 4(a) Accidents at locations in Pontefract 1992-1994

It is difficult to justify location. With Town End, for example, a portion is actually built up, and the accountancy offices at Ropergate End are an unlikely scene for pile up. Nevertheless, with a view to consistency, the defined area of Town End was used bearing in mind that of the samples shown, Town End has a high proportion of roads to non-roads, we can imagine a correlation of Town End's casualty rate relative to the other locations. For the sake of interest the last two areas were chosen, one the same size and one half the size of Town End. Although these areas contain two or more junctions, they are equally worthy of consideration to Town End (Which in effect has 6).

Relative to other 'Hot Spots' Town End covers a huge area. In terms of its area it had the lowest casualty cost of the sites observed. It can be seen that in these years the area centred upon the Catholic Club (Halfpenny Lane, Front Street, and Jubilee Way) had the same amount as casualties as Town End, in half the area, at twice the cost. It is sad to observe that in 1996 a child cyclist lost her life at the Halfpenny Lane/Front street junction.

Naturally, any road needs safety measures to minimise risk, but it might be suggested there was at least one more site in Pontefract where re-structuring should have been prioritised.

5. What is the Public's perception of the Town End traffic lights? ©

The general public does not like the traffic lights.

Since the installation of the traffic lights there has been much debate about the merits of them. The local newspaper has carried items, and letters, broadly supporting the view that their installation has been to the detriment of the town (see page 12). One objector even 'renamed' the roundabouts as a criticism of them.

As admitted by the paper, this might not give an accurate representation of the public's views so a survey was carried out. 50 people picked at random, by standing at the end of an alley in the town centre and asking everyone who walked through it the questions. Not all people asked were willing to answer

QUESTION	Yes	No	% Yes	% No	N/A.
Are you Male?	27	23	54	46
Are you happy with the arrangements	4	46	8	92
Were the old arrangements adequate?	41	6	82	12	3
Have journey times improved?	4	46	8	92
Has think safety improved?	16	18	32	36	16
Do you drive?	31	19	62	38

PUBLIC OPINION ON TOWN END

At the end of each questionnaire, the interviewees were asked if they wished to make a brief comment. 23 volunteered opinions, listed below

Cock Up	Got worse	Put it back	Terrible
Deceiving filter	Improvement needed	Road planners -Idiots	Terrible
Do Something	Nightmare	Rubbish	Terrible for horses
Go Back	Not very good	Rubbish	To Many cars
Go back	Pretty poor	Rubbish	Worse now
Go back to old way	Put it back	Taxi Drivers 'Crap'

COMMENTS ON TOWN END FROM PUBLIC

It seems that it is not a small group of vociferous objectors alone who dislike the arrangements, but that this small group reflects a general discontent about the system.

In the light of the other figures in this paper, it is remarkable that 32% of interviewees thought safety had improved. It is encouraging to see that the Council's Public relations department is enjoying such profound success.

Clippings from the Pontefract & Castleford Express

6. Could the change in casualty rates be a result of chance alone? ©

Yes, though unlikely

There are so many different ways to calculate chance and different starting figures to use. Of all aspects of this work this posed the thorniest problems. Apart from wondering how many casualties Pontefract would be expected to sustain, other variable factors might affect results, and results could be achieved using several different methods.

Mathematical models exist for calculate chance in different situations (Normal, Poisson, Binomial distributions to name but three).

An expert statistician might choose the appropriate model; nevertheless to the layman the process may seem complicated. With the three distribution models cited however, and for any other, the results will be broadly the same.

During 1993-5 Pontefract sustained 34 KSI casualties.

The national trend for KSI casualties for the three years after 1996 was a drop of 9%

We would have hoped Pontefract would follow the national trend in those years, and sustained 91% of 34 i.e. 31 KSI Casualties.

Pontefract in fact sustained 44 KSI casualties in the three years after 1996.

There is considerable development in housing on the Northeast edge of the town, but there is no significant influx of population or employment within the designated area. No schools have been built, and traffic calming measures in Willow Park, Carleton Park and elsewhere should have reduced casualties. Evidence of traffic being increased is not obvious.

Pontefract is either very unfortunate, or something is going wrong. There is a case for stating that the rise in traffic casualties in Pontefract might be attributable to chance alone, nevertheless, we would expect a drop in casualties over the next few years if that were the case. We should be concerned that we would still be in the 'unluckiest' few percent.

Summary©

There are no apparent factors, other than the Town End Traffic Lights and Slim Chance that might account for the rise in casualties.

There is no evidence to suggest they (The traffic lights) have contributed anything to the safety of road users of all types Town End.

I have found no evidence to suggest they have contributed anything to increased safety of road users of all types in Pontefract generally.

92% of people who volunteered answers were dissatisfied with the Town End arrangements, and considered that journey times were slower.

There is evidence to suggest that a least one other junction should have been prioritised for road safety improvements prior to Town End.

Considering the rise in serious casualties since the installation of the traffic lights, and the probability that said rise is not merely a result of chance, the utility of the arrangements at Town End is worthy of further scrutiny.

Sources. ©

Road Accidents Great Britain: 1997 the Casualty Report (DETR)

Ordnance survey

West Yorkshire Met Accident Database, Sweet Street, Leeds.

White Paper on transport, July 1998. (DETR)

The people of Pontefract

Quantification of the effects of Air Pollution in UK. (Dep. Health)

Thanks. ©

Chris Genn, WY Accident database, Sweet Street, Leeds

Mick Griffin

Peter Hemming, Wakefield road safety

Chris

Wakefield College and staff.

Author

Steve Kidd

10^th May 2000

In July more national statistics will fine-tune the national trends.

At some time further local statistics might give credence to this paper.

The local Newspapers and Radio Station have picked up on the story and the author hopes to present the paper to the local community forum and transport scrutiny panel. The local engineering department and council members have been given copies of the paper and so far the latter have asked the former for a detailed explanation. Watch this space.

Diary

March 21^st Wakefield Met's safety officer given a copy of report

March 22^nd paper publishes article and Photo

April 5^th Cllrs Coleville and Dean were given copies

April 15th I wrote to the members asking if they agreed:

"There is no evidence to show that the arrangements at Town End have done anything to improve safety in Pontefract, and that since their installation in 1996, casualty rates have risen at the Town End site, but more importantly, the Rate for KSI (Killed and Serious Injury) casualties in Pontefract as a whole have increased a worrying amount?

If you disagree I would be interested to know what evidence you have which contradicts that in the public domain. If you do agree, are you happy that there is an apparent drain on the public purse of £1,000,000 per year over what we might expect in terms of casualty cost in Pontefract?

What do you intend to do about it?"

April 20^th Councillor Tony Dean asked Andy Kerr, the head of engineering, for a response.

June 17^th I delivered a second letter to Councillor Dean stating

"If what I report is a trend caused by Town End lights it might be suggested that since the officers first received my report their has been a cost of quarter of a million pounds in traffic casualties alone because of them.

May I now add a fourth question, and that is, what are your officers playing at? The first statement could be verified by one officer in one day, They should know exactly what the situation is allready.

When they do agree with the first statement, the ball is in your (the member's) court.

Considering the scale of what I am suggesting perhaps a more robust and quicker response might be appropriate."

June 22^nd Councillor Dean wrote to member in charge asking for a 'speeding up of the process'

Anecdotally, it was found while conducting the survey, that some people are naturally reluctant to answer questions in the street. Occasionally one would ask about the subject before committing themselves. Invariably the mention of Town End roundabouts would spark their rabid enthusiasm.

At the beginning of April notices were placed all around Town End saying WMDC were going to restructure the roundabouts, apologising for any inconvenience, and bringing a wry smile to the face of many a driver who then read the start date - April 1^st 2000. (They were put their by a prankster)

But it's not that funny, is it?

If Pontefract is suffering from a trend in traffic casualties, as might be suggested, since January 1997 the cost has been about £3,623,666. Between March 21^st 2000, When an officer first got this report, and June 30^th, there may have been a cost of £283,653. These figures equal a mind boggling. £2,836 per day.

Last update June 29^th,2000